View the MMABETMACHINE Stakes for UFC236 below:
Israel Adesanya Breakdown
Adesanya comes into this battle with plenty of advantages over the much smaller Gastelum, who’s giving up nearly 9 inches of reach. On the feet it’s the technical buildup strategy of Adesanya that can give him a substantial edge. He has a much more varied arsenal with effective leg kicks a strong choice against Kelvin, that will have to remain explosive to have any expectation closing the distance that is striking. Defensively Adesanya is sound, rolling with punches rather than over committing himself to be vulnerable to counter shots. He is a slow starter but turns up the volume once he’s a stronger sense for his opponent.
Gastelum has quickly boxing mixtures and has used this to evaluate some impressive finishes. The quality of Kelvin’s resistance is questionable with a lot of elderly fighters crumbling after becoming captured by his superior cardio or speed. Gastelum includes a wrestling foundation but has not made that a focus of his UFC run. In this battle the dimensions and takedown defense of Adesanya must mean this stays standing. Kelvin has limited paths to victory beyond landing a flush KO shot and given the reach and protection of Adesanya this does look unlikely.
Since going up to Middleweight Gastelum has managed to be remarkable despite his height and reach. Weidman showed us that size may be a big factor where the elderly fighters of this branch were unable to press the advantage. Adesanya ought to be able to control this fight to stay standing, where he will be able to style on Gastelum out of range. Round one could be close but past that it’s going to be just one way traffic. A late finish or comfortable decision seem equally likely.Dustin Poirier Breakdown
These guys clash in what should be a very competitive fight. Both guys prefer their striking with Holloway’s volume fashion according to Poirier’s technical fundamentals combined with surprising power. The public seem to be all over Holloway after his impressive Ortega win and the bookie has him lined a substantial favorite. While his boxing and boxing is unmatched at 145lb, it could be another story here. Poirier hits very hard, with much more power than anything Max might have undergone lately. When there was a weakness Holloway’s match it’s that he takes too many clean shots, and there is absolutely no reason a clear one from Poirier can’t end the struggle.
This fight is very likely to start off at Poirier’s favour as he lands the more impacting shots and makes use of his reach advantage. Holloway will have to survive until the later rounds in a bid to conquer Poirier with his cardio and pace. Dustin is no slouch in this area and is extremely tough to put away himself. We view this as an early stoppage to get Poirier or near decision led into the judges. The middle rounds will be crucial in deciding the winner. In +180 the value is clear, back the dangerous fighter that has firmly established himself on top of their toughest division in the sport.
Bet = Poirier in 2.80 (+180) chances. Risk 4 Units to win 7.2 Units.
Eryk Anders Breakdown
Rountree is a dangerous striker, equally fast and powerful, but his one dimensional gameplan makes him very beatable. Of most concern is his gas tank which is quickly depleted as he spams power shots early. Additionally his wrestling and grappling is well below average. Rountree is coming from a big KO loss to Johnny Walker.
Anders is quite durable and has a fundamental but dangerous striking style himself. The key to success is going to be his exceptional pressure as he can blend in takedowns to wear Rountree out, negating his energy. Rountree is stuck at the bottom of the ranks compared to Anders who lately had aggressive match with the title challenger Santos. Look for him to endure some early scares to then implement his wrestling and then take over the struggle past round one.
Bet = Anders in 1.54 (-185) odds. Risk 3 Units to win 1.62 Units.
Alan Jouban Breakdown
Jouban comes into this battle with far more expertise but also a 5??? reach drawback. Grant is 34 decades of age and improbable to make huge strides in his entire game. He doesn’t look very striking with sloppy method but does have big capability to land the kill shot. Jouban’s durability is a concern but overall he is the far superior fighter. Start looking for him to deliver a wise game-plan for this one and use his superior arsenal to outside attack Grant. Jouban has sneaky power himself but a decision is also likely. .
Bet = Jouban in 2.0 (+100) odds. Risk 3 Units to win 3.0 Units.
Max Griffin Breakdown
Imadaev is quite unproven and at just 24 years old has been winning against poor resistance on the regional landscape. He looks to be getting a lot of respect from the chances makers, possibly because of his Russian heritage. This is a big step up against Max Griffin who’s a tough UFC veteran. He brings solid boxing and electricity and can mix in the strange takedown when demanded. Griffin’s question mark is certainly his durability, as he has rocked in most fights, but he has a fighters mentality for coming back from hardship. Imadaev could be the real deal in which case that is very likely to be an action packed affair. Otherwise look for Griffin to ship up the inexperienced newcomer. At slight underdog chances we enjoy a wager on the more established fighter.
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