BIG MARLEY’S UFC ON ESPN 1 DRAFTKINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN

This weekend, we’ve got a 13-fight PPV card in Phoenix, Arizona. This is the very first ever UFC on big ESPN card and DK has some adequate competitions for us for this Sunday card. The most important GPP is a $10 buy-in and $20k goes to 1st place, and there’ll be $100k in total prizes. They also have a new Qualifier for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that final competition and they’ll compete for a $50k first place price and that $175k will probably be spread out between all 100 entries that match. Those Qualifier only competitions can be real bankroll suckers therefore be careful chasing those overly hard. I’ll likely stick to the very best GPP this week and throw 50 or so entries at the $20k decoration. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs through the week to get a fantastic quantity of play into money games. With that said, let’s get to a few plays I like as well as my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week — Vicente Luque ($9,400)
Vicente Luque is your most powerful play on the slate, in my opinion. I think he’ll be the better fighter everywhere this battle goes, and he must dominate. I enjoy locking that win in my money match and I think he has a fantastic chance at getting 10x his $9.4k salary. I do expect him to become hot in tournaments so if you want to fade the ownership there and attempt to become more contrarian, I would definitely want some Luque investment in cash games. Barberena is demanding so that he could last all 3 rounds and when he does then Luque might only score in the 80s and that will not win any GPPs. But, we can use an ~80-point win in cash games since we only have to conquer half the field unlike the tournaments.
GPP drama of this week — Cain Velasquez ($9,000)
Cain Velasquez is my GPP drama of the week because of the chances. A bit more than a week ago he was a -255 favorite and that’s what led to his high $95 price tag. Now he is just -155 and the value is on Ngannou in his 7.2k price label. I anticipate Ngannou to be the greatest owned fighter on the card and if Cain wins then he will kill off near half the field. Furthermore, if Cain wins he is probably scoring over 100-points. I anticipate his possession to really go down the more his gambling line decreases and that is what makes him a great GPP play. He’s a 0-point flooring, so I do not care for him in money game, but for GPPs we need boom or float to attempt to reach this 1st place prize.
Underdog drama of this week — Andre Fili ($7,400)
Andre Fili is my favourite dog of this week. He is $1,400 less costly than Myles Jury on DraftKings, however he is only a +125 underdog. I think he’s a fantastic shot of winning this battle and I am picking him to get his hands raised. I anticipate this to be a very close fight, but I believe Fili will be the fighter striking in the higher rate and that’s what I believe do it for him on the judges’ scorecards. I don’t see Fili with 100+ stage upside down but we don’t really require that in his $7.4k price label. I believe he’s a great shot at getting at 10x, so he is playable in all formats for me.
Fade of the week — Andrea Lee ($8,900)
Andrea Lee is my fade of this week. Not because I believe she will lose, but I believe have difficulty seeing her on the $20k lineup in her wages. I enjoy the $9k range a great deal greater than her and they all have higher ceilings with their grappling-based match programs. Andrea Lee scored well in her UFC introduction, but this is because she didn’t use grappling there. I really don’t see her doing that in this match because I think Evans-Smith gets got the edge on the floor and she should be the one looking for takedowns. If Lee is going to win this battle, then she is going to need to get it done on the toes and I don’t see her having a high ceiling without a finish. The sole reason to use her is because she will be super low owned, and it’ll create your lineup contrarian, but I still wouldn’t advise it.
Thank you for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle on the card and provide my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all of my pick predictions, you’ll find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link too. I am 57-34 to get +188.13u (+$18,813) since May 19th on Premium Plays)

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