This weekend, we’ve got a PPV card in Atlanta. DraftKings has some solid competitions for us to win a great deal of cash from this week and I can’t wait to chase those big prizes. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $30k goes to 1st place with a total of $150k being paid out. They also have a brand new Qualifier for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they will compete for a $50k first location cost and $175k will be spread out between all 100 entries that qualify. I will attempt to get my 2nd and 3rd chairs this week if possible. Those Qualifier only contests can be real bankroll suckers therefore be careful chasing those overly hard. I’ll likely stick to the top GPP this week and throw 100 or so entries at the $30k decoration, and then I will probably take a couple shots at the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs through the week to receive a good quantity of drama into money games.
With that said, let’s get into a few plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:
Money Game play of this week — STACK — Max Holloway $9,100 and Dustin Poirier $7,100
This was the first thing I did when wages were released. I put these two fighters in my money lineup and I began building out there. I anticipate this to be among the best fights ever and I think we get ~200 total DK points from this fight, plus the guaranteed win. I’m okay with taking the loss when I can assure myself over 100 points together with the stack, but I think 150 is a safe projection for this struggle and if we could lock up 3 other wins we ought to win the vast majority of our cash games. Like I always saywe don’t want 6 wins for money games so there is really no need to pursue it. Only lock in a safe lineup that you believe will score more than 400 total points and you should win more H2Hs than you lose.
GPP drama of this week — Nikita Krylov — $8,200
Krylov is my GPP drama of the week since he’s the definition of boom or bust. He loses or scores over 100 DK points. That’s what we desire in GPPs. This is not a sure choice in him winning it is only a shot at his ceiling which is what we search for in the big GPPs where we are attempting to win the best $30k prize. Krylov has finished all 24 of his wins and he has just seen the 3rd round once in his career. This is a good fight to target on both sides, but I am taking Krylov to get the win and that I have a good amount of vulnerability to this weekend.
Underdog play of this week — Dustin Poirier — $7,100
I needed to place Poirier here. I adore his floor and I think he is a live underdog. However, IF he wins, he will 100% wind up on the 1st place lineup in his 7.1k price-tag. He’s going to score over 100 DK points when he is able to get a victory here and that’s what we are chasing in GPPs. Even if you believe Max is going to dominate Poirier that I believe that you ought to have 1 hedge lineup utilizing Poirier, which is an all-in fight for me. Every lineup I build will start with Dustin or Max and I will go on from there. Load up with this fight and make sure you get some Poirier exposure.
Fade of this week — Boston Salmon ($8,600)
It was hard to pick a fade of the week this week because I believe that you can make an argument for rostering everyone. I wanted to choose a popular though and I feel the favored with among those lower ceilings is Salmon. I’m picking him to win but that he won’t be heading for almost any takedowns and if he does not get a finish he probably does not pay off his $8.6k price . I need at least 10x (86-points) if I’m rostering somebody and I don’t see him getting that unless he receives a knockout. Taha is tough so that I really don’t observe the knockout occurring. I think Salmon does get a unanimous decision win here but it likely scores in the 70’s which will not win us the large $30k. That is why he’s my fade of the week.
Thank you for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my own full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every struggle about the card and provide my full DraftKings evaluation, as well as all my pick predictions, then you’ll find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link too. I’m 66-41 for +220.23un (+$22,023) because May 19th on Premium Plays)
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